NCEP has been a experiencing gridded model data distribution outage for the past 24 hours. The site used for dissemination of raw model data has been offline since 18z 1/5/22. Many of our production suites are dependent on these raw output sources. As such, they will remain unavailable until NOAA returns their systems into service. We are awaiting a time of restoration.
We are continuing to work on installing new servers and hardware to improve the Wright Weather performance and reliability, by adding additional capacity and redundancy. Over the next few days there may some brief interruption of services as we on-board these new backend systems.
** GFS Upgrade has been completed **
NCEP/NOAA is scheduling the GFS to be upgraded on/about March 17th. We do not expect any significant issues migrating from the current operational version to the new version, however there may be some delays or minor issues during the changeover.
The new version of the GFS provides higher vertical resolution with more layers added above the tropopause, the horizontal resolution remains the same. Numerous changes have been made which will cause the GFS output being about 20 minutes slower than the current operational version, while consuming about 4x the amount of supercomputing processing power.
Having reviewed the statistical skill scores of the GFSv16 there is very slight improvement, but there were some negatives, such a significant right bias in tropical cyclone tracks and a much lower CAPE value then the previous GFS, which was already negatively biased.
So be aware of these items when using the new GFS. CAPE values will tend to be suppressed, which will make other severe convective parameters appear less intense (SCP,STP,EHI) and Tropical cyclones forecast skill was not improved ( GFS v16 to GFS v15), as noted in the active 2020 season.
Here is the GFSv16 Evaluation Page:
Here is the Service Change Notice:
NCEP Implemented a data transfer encryption protocol change today.
This impacted our ability to process some model data in ways we did not anticipate. We are working through the changes and expect to have the issues resolved shortly.
The 18Z GFS is currently updating and should complete by around 23:15Z
The HRRR and RAP Models were both upgraded today. Many changes to the internal physics where introduced which should improve the forecast accuracy of both models.
More details can be found here in a technical notice from NCEP.
The HRRR model was increased to 18 hours on the Wright-Weather site.
The RAP model will be increased to 21 hours from 18 hours later this week.
The Heat Index and Relative Humidity were added to the HRRR model.
Also the HRRR model is scheduled for an upgrade later this month. A separate announcement will be made when the upgrade is completed.
NCEP has significantly upgraded the HWRF this year in time for the heart of the 2016 tropical season.
I have updated the code to process the new higher resolution HWRF data which is double the resolution of the older model output.
Invest 97L is now available along with other systems being monitored in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Check the Tropical Products menu on the home page, under “Site Navigation” for the name of the tropical system with word HWRF appended to it.
A fix to an internal network error has corrected a problem with the GFS Tropical Sector. It is now working again on the 12Z 5/25/2016 run.
91-L Invest is also available on our Interactive Hurricane Model Plots
The SREF (Short Term Ensemble Forecast) system was recently upgraded to 26 members. This caused an issue with some of the SREF products not being generated. These problems have been resolved and all SREF products are again available.
Here is the link to the SREF forecast products.
We are pleased to announce that we have made a major investment in new hardware and will be deploying a number of new Dell Enterprise Servers over the next several days.
These new servers will increase our computational processing capacity by 561% and our disk storage system will increase by over 600% . Also, our internal network backbone will increase by 10x. We are also moving to a solid state storage array which will allow us to process data much faster than we have been able to in the past.
We are moving these new servers into a data center with some of the best peering and fastest internet connectivity available, which will result in a extremely responsive user experience for our customers.
As we make this transition off some of our older hardware to the new servers at the new location, there may be some temporary interruptions in some of the model data and other graphics for a brief time. We will be doing everything we can to prevent any delays in model production or interruptions to any of the products we generate.
As we get all the servers and systems fully migrated over in the coming weeks, look for many more new and exciting products from Wright-Weather.com in the coming months.
If you have any questions or see any issues with the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at support at wright-weather.com
President / Meteorologist