Very heavy rainfall will spread northward along low level convergence axis across East Central North Carolina into areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday and last night. Flash Flooding is quite likely as an additional 2-4” may occur in short period of time.
Additionally, enough low level shear and instability are in place that a brief, weak tornado a cannot be ruled out of a stronger storm develops in the next couple of hours.
Added 925 Mb winds to the NAM, NAM CONUS Nest & HWRF Models. They are in the drop down menus. Should be available with the 10-28-12 12Z runs.
Below is the forecast 925mb winds (just above the surface) as Sandy makes landfall. Winds of 95 knots are forecast by the HWRF near Long Island. Mixing of these winds near surface by heavy rain showers will likely transport gust to 70 knots at times as the strong gradient north of the center rotates through.
The GFS 850mb vorticity was added this past weekend to the GFS Tropical menus. The 850mb vorticity can be a potential early indicator of tropical cyclone genesis.
The 850mb vorticity parameter has already been part of the ECMWF model guidance for a number of years.
Fixed the 88D image map for Witchita, KS.
The Hurricane WRF (HWRF) Model received a physics upgrade today. More information is available from the NWS TIN. The model graphics at Wright-Weather.com will incorporate these changes.
The RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) Model was upgraded today with the Rapid Refresh Model. All of the links and graphics may still contain the acronym RUC but data is from the RAP model. The links and menus will be updated over the next few days to reflect the name change.
Here is a link to more information about the new Rapid Refresh Model.
80 Meter winds above ground level from the NAM and also from the 4km NAM NEST have been added. This is very useful for our clients that are interested in forecasting for the all important hub height for wind turbines, at wind generation facilities.
These are updated 4 times per day. If you have any questions please let us know.
We added a background image to the NEXRAD single site imagery. We are looking into creating a better background image from topographic data. If this new image background is a problem, please let us know.
NEXRAD Image with the colored basemap
The resolution of the GFS model graphics from 192-384 hours has been increased to 1° up from the 2.5º resolution. This will result in more detail in the extended ranges of the GFS.
Note..The model itself has not had an increase in resolution, we are just now receiving higher resolution output.
GFS Model New Resolution