NCEP Implemented a data transfer encryption protocol change today.
This impacted our ability to process some model data in ways we did not anticipate. We are working through the changes and expect to have the issues resolved shortly.
The 18Z GFS is currently updating and should complete by around 23:15Z
The HRRR and RAP Models were both upgraded today. Many changes to the internal physics where introduced which should improve the forecast accuracy of both models.
More details can be found here in a technical notice from NCEP.
The HRRR model was increased to 18 hours on the Wright-Weather site.
The RAP model will be increased to 21 hours from 18 hours later this week.
The Heat Index and Relative Humidity were added to the HRRR model.
Also the HRRR model is scheduled for an upgrade later this month. A separate announcement will be made when the upgrade is completed.
NCEP has significantly upgraded the HWRF this year in time for the heart of the 2016 tropical season.
I have updated the code to process the new higher resolution HWRF data which is double the resolution of the older model output.
Invest 97L is now available along with other systems being monitored in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Check the Tropical Products menu on the home page, under “Site Navigation” for the name of the tropical system with word HWRF appended to it.
A fix to an internal network error has corrected a problem with the GFS Tropical Sector. It is now working again on the 12Z 5/25/2016 run.
91-L Invest is also available on our Interactive Hurricane Model Plots
The SREF (Short Term Ensemble Forecast) system was recently upgraded to 26 members. This caused an issue with some of the SREF products not being generated. These problems have been resolved and all SREF products are again available.
Here is the link to the SREF forecast products.
We are pleased to announce that we have made a major investment in new hardware and will be deploying a number of new Dell Enterprise Servers over the next several days.
These new servers will increase our computational processing capacity by 561% and our disk storage system will increase by over 600% . Also, our internal network backbone will increase by 10x. We are also moving to a solid state storage array which will allow us to process data much faster than we have been able to in the past.
We are moving these new servers into a data center with some of the best peering and fastest internet connectivity available, which will result in a extremely responsive user experience for our customers.
As we make this transition off some of our older hardware to the new servers at the new location, there may be some temporary interruptions in some of the model data and other graphics for a brief time. We will be doing everything we can to prevent any delays in model production or interruptions to any of the products we generate.
As we get all the servers and systems fully migrated over in the coming weeks, look for many more new and exciting products from Wright-Weather.com in the coming months.
If you have any questions or see any issues with the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at support at wright-weather.com
President / Meteorologist
The GFS Model will be upgraded from ~27KM to ~13KM this summer. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) will become operational later this year. Power Point Link (NCEP)
In preparation for these and other expected increases in weather processing volume, we have been adding additional computing hardware to handle this data increase. Using redundant Enterprise HP Proliant hardware in a 24/7 staffed SAS-70 Tier 1 Data Center, ensures we will be ready to handle the next generation of weather data. Below is an image of a few of the servers & equipment that deliver Wright-Weather.com products to you.
Added 925 Mb winds to the NAM, NAM CONUS Nest & HWRF Models. They are in the drop down menus. Should be available with the 10-28-12 12Z runs.
Below is the forecast 925mb winds (just above the surface) as Sandy makes landfall. Winds of 95 knots are forecast by the HWRF near Long Island. Mixing of these winds near surface by heavy rain showers will likely transport gust to 70 knots at times as the strong gradient north of the center rotates through.
The GFS 850mb vorticity was added this past weekend to the GFS Tropical menus. The 850mb vorticity can be a potential early indicator of tropical cyclone genesis.
The 850mb vorticity parameter has already been part of the ECMWF model guidance for a number of years.