GFS Upgrade v16 Scheduled for March 17th

 

** GFS Upgrade has been completed **

NCEP/NOAA is scheduling the GFS to be upgraded on/about March 17th.   We do not expect any significant issues migrating from the current operational version to the new version, however there  may be some delays or minor issues during the changeover.

The new version of the GFS provides higher vertical resolution with more layers added above the tropopause, the horizontal resolution remains the same.  Numerous changes have been made which will cause the GFS output being about 20 minutes slower than the current operational version, while consuming about 4x the amount of supercomputing processing power.

Having reviewed the statistical skill scores of the GFSv16  there is very slight improvement, but there were some negatives, such a significant right bias in tropical cyclone tracks and a much lower CAPE value then the previous GFS, which was already negatively biased.

So be aware of these items when using the new GFS.  CAPE values will tend to be suppressed, which will make other severe convective parameters appear less intense (SCP,STP,EHI) and Tropical cyclones forecast skill was not improved ( GFS v16 to GFS v15), as noted in the active 2020 season.

Here is the GFSv16 Evaluation Page:
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gfsv16/
Here is the Service Change Notice:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-20gfs_v16.0.pdf

HRRR & RAP Models Upgraded Today

The HRRR and RAP Models were both upgraded today.  Many changes to the internal physics where introduced which should improve the forecast accuracy of both models.

More details can be found here in a technical notice from NCEP.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin16-26rap_hrrrr.htm

The HRRR model was increased to 18 hours on the Wright-Weather site.
The RAP model will be increased to 21 hours from 18 hours later this week.

http://hrrr.wright-weather.com/hrrr.php

 

 

HWRF Upgraded for 2016. Invest 97L Available

NCEP has significantly upgraded the HWRF this year in time for the heart of the 2016 tropical season.

I have updated the code to process the new higher resolution HWRF data which is double the resolution of the older model output.

Invest 97L is now available along with other systems being monitored in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Check the Tropical Products menu on the home page, under “Site Navigation” for the name of the tropical system with word HWRF appended to it.

Significant Hardware Upgrades to Wright-Weather.com This Week. Possible Interruptions

We are pleased to announce that we have made a major investment in new hardware and will be deploying a number of new Dell Enterprise Servers over the next several days.

These new servers will increase our computational processing capacity by 561% and our disk storage system will increase by over 600% .  Also,  our internal network backbone will increase by 10x.  We are also moving to a solid state storage array which will allow us to process data much faster than we have been able to in the past.

We are moving these new servers into a data center with some of the best peering and fastest internet connectivity available, which will result in a extremely responsive user experience for our customers.

As we make this transition off some of our older hardware to the new servers at the new location, there may be some temporary interruptions in some of the model data and other graphics for a brief time. We will be doing everything we can to prevent any delays in model production or interruptions to any of the products we generate.

As we get all the servers and systems fully migrated over  in the coming weeks, look for many more new and exciting products from Wright-Weather.com in the coming months.

If you have any questions or see any issues with the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at support at wright-weather.com

Mike Dross
President / Meteorologist
Wright-Weather.com

 

Hardware Upgrades for Our North Carolina Data Center

The GFS Model will be upgraded from ~27KM to ~13KM this summer. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) will become operational later this year.   Power Point Link (NCEP) 

In preparation for these and other expected increases in weather processing volume, we have been adding additional computing hardware to handle this data increase.  Using redundant Enterprise HP Proliant hardware in a 24/7 staffed SAS-70 Tier 1 Data Center, ensures we will be ready to handle the next generation of weather data. Below is an image of a few of the servers & equipment that deliver Wright-Weather.com products to you.

Added 925 Millibar Winds

Added 925 Mb winds to the NAM, NAM CONUS Nest & HWRF Models. They are in the drop down menus. Should be available with the 10-28-12 12Z runs.

Below is the forecast 925mb winds (just above the surface) as Sandy makes landfall. Winds of 95 knots are forecast  by the HWRF near Long Island. Mixing of these winds near surface by heavy rain showers will likely transport gust to 70 knots at times as the strong gradient north of the center rotates through.