Mike Dross

About Mike Dross

Scientist / Meteorologist. Founder & President of Wright-Weather.com.

Update from NCEP on Data Outage

NCEP has informed us that the data center where they distribute the raw model data via ftp service which we obtain much of the pre-proccessed data will be back on-line tomorrow January 8th at 14Z.   At that time we expect most of the affected processes to return.

The GFS, HRRR and NAM which are processed off NOAAPORT and other sources, that are unaffected by these systems are linked here.

http://namp.wright-weather.com/namp.php

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/avn.shtml

http://hrrr.wright-weather.com/hrrr.php

 

NCEP Model Data Outage

NCEP has been a experiencing gridded model data distribution outage for the past 24 hours. The site used for dissemination of raw model data has been offline since 18z 1/5/22.  Many of our production suites are dependent on these raw output sources.  As such, they will remain unavailable until NOAA returns their systems into service. We are awaiting a time of restoration.

 

GFS Upgrade v16 Scheduled for March 17th

 

** GFS Upgrade has been completed **

NCEP/NOAA is scheduling the GFS to be upgraded on/about March 17th.   We do not expect any significant issues migrating from the current operational version to the new version, however there  may be some delays or minor issues during the changeover.

The new version of the GFS provides higher vertical resolution with more layers added above the tropopause, the horizontal resolution remains the same.  Numerous changes have been made which will cause the GFS output being about 20 minutes slower than the current operational version, while consuming about 4x the amount of supercomputing processing power.

Having reviewed the statistical skill scores of the GFSv16  there is very slight improvement, but there were some negatives, such a significant right bias in tropical cyclone tracks and a much lower CAPE value then the previous GFS, which was already negatively biased.

So be aware of these items when using the new GFS.  CAPE values will tend to be suppressed, which will make other severe convective parameters appear less intense (SCP,STP,EHI) and Tropical cyclones forecast skill was not improved ( GFS v16 to GFS v15), as noted in the active 2020 season.

Here is the GFSv16 Evaluation Page:
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gfsv16/
Here is the Service Change Notice:
https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-20gfs_v16.0.pdf

** NOAA Planning Data Distribution Outage for 1/21/21- 1/22/21 **

NOAA is taking down its primary data distribution site https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov for a power upgrade from 1-21-2021-1-22-2022.  This will impact some of the model graphics/analytic creation on Wright Weather. We utilize the NOMADS for a good deal of our model data sourcing.  During this outage there will be an interruption of some graphics/analytics we deliver.

Here is the message from NOAA.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-118nomads_outageaaac.pdf

 

Update: 1/22 15Z   Outage continues.  NOAA planned a 19 hour outage, but 24+ hours in the outage continues. Latest message indicates that it will be up later today.  Expect next run of the GFS available will be the 18Z.

Update: 1/23 18Z  NCEP has restored most of the NOMADS system but there are some missing data and is still not fully functional, so some updates on Wright Weather will will be delayed or missing until NCEP has their site completely restored.

 

Day of Week Issue on Some Model Maps

The day of the week stopped appearing in some of the model maps starting on 1/1/2021 due to an issue with GRIB.  We are working on implementing a fix to this unexpected problem.  Some maps will display a “???” for the day of the week for until the bug fix is implemented. It may be a few weeks until the code is tested and implemented.

NCEP Server Down Once Again Causing Model Interruptions

NCEP once again, has encountered system problems and stopped dissemination of model data through the primary external model data interfaces we rely on (NOMADS).   This is the longest outage to date, that has continued since Thursday of last week.  They stopped working on it over the weekend (So much for 24/7 support for the weather community).

Will try to find a work around if they can’t find a fix a today but all of our code has been developed to work with the NOMADS system.

NCEP Model Update Delays

NOAA/NCEP servers which we rely on for our model data have been either completely out of service or only partially working for the past 30 hours.  NOAA/NCEP is working on the issue. No estimated time of full restoration has been given.   Until they resolve the data flow issues, we will continue to have missing or delayed model data.