Scheduled System Maintenance – Updated 9/15/16

Update 9/15/16  8:15 AM EDT

The Storage Area Network rebuild is complete as of  this morning.  The HRRR and NAM Surface are back on-line and will be updating as usual.   We appreciate your patience as we went through is period maintenance on the systems.

Update 9/14/16 11:30AM EDT

Work continues rebuilding the Storage Area Network.  Unforeseen problems with the new hardware  have delayed getting the systems back on-line. We hope that the new parts that arrived this morning will resolve this and the network and disk subsystems should be back up later today.

Update: 9/13/16  3:30 AM EDT

Work continues rebuilding the storage array.  Problems were encountered and have delayed getting all the virtual machines back on-line. We do anticipate all the servers to be operational later today.

Update Monday 9/12/16 12:15 PM EDT

A problem was discovered with the NAM. It is being corrected and the 12Z run is being run and should be available around 17:30Z

NAM – NOAAPORT is available. 

Update: Monday 9/12/16  10:00 AM EDT

Work continues on the Storage Area Network.  We expect the HRRR and NAM Surface Products to be off-line for much of the afternoon today.  The GFS-Hi-res may be off-line for a brief period of time as well, however the GFS -NOAAPORT  will remain on-line.

We apologize for these interruptions of service, but due to a bug in the disk controller firmware, which caused a corruption of the data on our SAN. We are having to off load all our data and rebuild our SAN. This is allowing us to also upgrade the SAN to an all SSD SAN which will be much faster.

Thank you for your patience.


On Saturday (9/10/16) afternoon we will be upgrading our high speed storage area network. In doing so, we will be forced to move some running servers off-line for a period of time this weekend. A few of the operational products will likely be impacted for several hours while the hardware is being upgraded.

We expect the following to be off-line for up to 12 hours.

NAM Surface Products
We will update the site once all the products are full restored.

If there is a major weather event this weekend, we will postpone the hardware maintenance.

Unusually High Risk of Tornadoes With Hermaine Landfall Across Coastal Georgia & South Carolina Friday

Hurricane Hermaine will make landfall in the Florida Panhandle tonight and then likely track up the coastal plain of Georgia into the Carolina’s on Friday. Seldom seen, with a tropical system, a mix of highly unstable air off the Atlantic ocean interfaced with extreme shear/helicity over Southeastern Georgia and Eastern South Carolina may combine to produce a number of mini-supercells and tornadoes, some that are stronger than what is typical with tropical cyclones. A highly localized outbreak of tornadic supercells across the Coastal Plain of Georgia and South Carolina is possible.

CAPE values from a number of models suggest a plume of instability will be entrained into the tropical cyclone from the Atlantic westward, coincide with the area of maximum low level helicity near the Georgia/South Carolina Coast Friday. This will be highly dependent on the exact track of the center.

In many tornadic episodes with tropical cyclones, CAPE values can be typically be in the 400-800 J/Kg range, rarely seen above 1500 due to clouds and warm temperatures aloft.

Model simulations from the ECMWF, NAM, NAM-4KM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW suggest CAPE values as high as 3000 J/Kg along the South Carolina and Georgia Coastal areas Friday afternoon.

If this materializes, as the models are simulating, an extreme environment is being created across this region where strong to even violent tornadoes could occur.

Forecasters  should pay very close attention to this area, because this is atypical for the type of CAPE/Shear relationship you typically find with a land falling tropical system.

Here are some plots of the 12Z/18Z models for tomorrow highlighting the threat.

Extreme CAPE Values mixed with the TC wind-field potenitally

Very high values of 0-1km EHI for a tropical system

Very high Surface CAPE near the Coastal Plain





Very high Supercell Potential. Typical tropical system do not have high SCP due to low CAPE.

Again Very High Significant Tornado Potential, which is uncommon for land-falling tropical systems.

HRRR & RAP Models Upgraded Today

The HRRR and RAP Models were both upgraded today.  Many changes to the internal physics where introduced which should improve the forecast accuracy of both models.

More details can be found here in a technical notice from NCEP.

The HRRR model was increased to 18 hours on the Wright-Weather site.
The RAP model will be increased to 21 hours from 18 hours later this week.



HWRF Upgraded for 2016. Invest 97L Available

NCEP has significantly upgraded the HWRF this year in time for the heart of the 2016 tropical season.

I have updated the code to process the new higher resolution HWRF data which is double the resolution of the older model output.

Invest 97L is now available along with other systems being monitored in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Check the Tropical Products menu on the home page, under “Site Navigation” for the name of the tropical system with word HWRF appended to it.

Upgraded the Single Site Radar Products

Upgraded the processors and software on the radar server to handle NEXRAD 2 minute and TDWR 1 minute frequency, lowest level reflectivity and velocity scans from all 160+ sites.

This is a significant temporal increase in resolution from the 6 minute updates we originally received from the NEXRAD and TDWR radars.

The new imagery is now available for all sites.


GFS Spring 2016 Upgrade Completed Today

The GFS Spring 2016 upgrade was completed today as of 12Z. This was the long awaited upgrade that included the 4DVar inclusion.

For more details on the all the changes to the GFS model see the NCEP technical attachment. In short there should be some improvement in the model performance, but overall there will not be a significant leap in model accuracy with this one upgrade.

NAM-4km Severe Weather Fields Fixed

Some of the NAM-4km Severe Weather Fields were not being updated due to a bug in the code. This has been fixed. Some of the fields that have been fixed are:

Supercell Composite Parameter
Significant Tornado Parameter
Updraft Helicity Swath

Click on the link below to go to the NAM 4km which is update 4x per day.